Just because someone spends some time developing a new idea, that doesn’t mean that they are doing so because they think it must be true. This may sound silly: if they don’t think its true, then why devote so much time to it?This dynamic translates to writing and publishing without much mind-bending.
One answer is that it could be true. Thus we should figure out what falsifiable implications it would have if it were true so that future experiments can cross it out. However, there’s a deeper reason to pursue ideas that one isn’t necessarily “married to.”
The point is that good ideas have value just because they’re good ideas, even if they are necessarily speculative.
I'm finishing up a huge project. Unemployment is looming. Between me and my next job there are hundreds of ideas, any and all of which have the potential to blossom or fizzle. I honestly don't believe there's any such thing as a lousy idea for a book. There's ideas that are in the wrong head at the wrong time. Or in the right head at the wrong time. Or in the wrong head at the right time. There are ideas that get championed and ideas that don't, and the difference doesn't come down to good or bad, it comes down to what the author is willing and able to do with it.
Book ideas are, as the physicist said, necessarily speculative. Don't let a friend, family member, or rejection letter rob you of that journey. A few spectacularly speculative ideas that have turned into deliciously successful books:
The Interrogative Mood by Pagett Powell
The Bad Beginning (A Series of Unfortunate Events, Book 1) and by Lemony Snicket (The rest of the series seemed like a great idea after the first one made a bazilion dollars!)
Memoirs of a Geisha by Arthur Golden
The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time by Mark Haddon
St. Burl's Obituary by Daniel Akst
Uncle Tom's Cabin by Harriet Beecher Stowe
The Lovely Bones by Alice Seybold
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